Natural climate variability amplifies climate change warmingNorth Atlantic temperature variations influence hot summers in southern Europe

1 September 2022, by Leonard Borchert

Photo: pexels/mohamed elshawry

Anthropogenic climate change leads to an increase in particularly hot summer months. In fact, 90% of southern European summer temperature variations are now governed by the climate change signal, as recently demonstrated in a study led by Leonard Borchert. The remaining 10% are related to natural variability in the climate system that can periodically amplify or dampen the climate change warming signal. Thanks to a close connection of these natural variations to the eastern North Atlantic Ocean, a large portion of these natural variations can be reliably predicted. As we are currently experiencing a warm phase of this mode of natural variability, there is an increased likelihood for hot summers in southern Europe.

Details can be found in the original publication, an article on the university website, or a news piece in the newspaper Hamburger Abendblatt (in German).